The second Open of the year is about to take place. This version is for the 2019-20 season, and there is a lot of excitement and anticipation across the CrossFit community. Many athletes hope that they can earn their spot at the 2020 CrossFit Games and feel that being at the top of the leaderboard in the Open will make a big statement.

It would be impressive, but does it guarantee that the athlete in question is set for success at the big stage? The results over the last three years have been the same when all was said and done. Fraser and Toomey leave as champions. Fraser has done it four times in a row now. 

So we went back five years and compared the top five in the Open for both the men’s and women’s fields to see how their efforts in the Games played out. While making it to that level is a success in itself, does one correlate with the other? Each year will have the top five 5 finishers in the Open with their result in the Games alongside. If the Games champion was out of the top five in that year’s Open, we placed his or her Open result below.

Note: The 2019 Games included more athletes than ever due to the expanded qualifications put in place by CrossFit.

*Games champion Tia-Clair Toomey finished 6th in the Open.

*Games champion Tia-Clair Toomey finished 12th in the Open.

*Anthony Davis competed in the Team Division and finished 8th.

*Games champion Tia-Clair Toomey finished 18th in the Open.

*Games champion Mat Fraser finished 7th in the Open.

*Games champion Katrin Davidsdottir finished in 14th place.

**Jamie Greene competed in the Teams Division and finished in 3rd place.

*Jason Khalipa competed in the Teams Division and placed 10th.

*Games champion Katrin Davidsdottir finished in 14th place.

Observations

Based on the last five years of results, here is what we can conclude about the correlation between the Open and Games.

1. No athlete has finished in the top five of the Open in all of the last five years. Mat Fraser has come the closest. He finished as the winner four times and in seventh place once.
2. The Fittest Man on Earth for each year finished no worse than seventh in the Open.
3. Conversely, the Fittest Woman on Earth hasn’t finished in the top five of the Open in any of the last five years.
4. The women’s Open winner has finished no higher than fourth place in the last five years.
5. There have been nine times in the last five years that a top-five finisher in the Men’s Open finished in the top five of the Games. Mat Fraser holds four of those positions.
6. On the women’s side, there have been eight occasions where an athlete finished in the top five of both the Open and the Games. Sara Sigmundsdottir holds three of those positions. None of those has been a champion.

So going back to 2015, there does seem to be a correlation between success in the Open and the Games on the men’s side. For the women, you could almost say that winning the Open is a curse. However, finishing in the top 20 or as a national champion does guarantee a qualification, so it’s worth the effort to compete and place high.

Do you think that these numbers are indications of how the new season will play out? Let us know by sharing this article with your thoughts on social media and tagging us @FloElite.

Roger Lockridge is from Lewisburg, WV. His work has been featured on numerous platforms and magazines in the fitness industry over the last 10 years. You can find him on Twitter and Instagram @rocklockridge.